← Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals
Water Tera SilvieTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals
decks
1
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.0%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
52.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1396
· median 1396
· range 1396–1396
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1036
Q1 1216
Q3 1395
1599
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 19.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 13.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Wind Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Beast | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Silvie decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
